Philippine Earthquake predicted on July 18, 2008

The prediction that the Philippines will experience an earthquake has been going around in emails, text, and blogs for quite sometime now. A certain Juseleeno Nobulega Daroose, a Brazilian teacher, predicted that on July 18, 2008 an earthquake of magnitude 8.1 will rock the Philippines.

I saw the Mini Series 10.5 last Saturday on Studio 23 and based on the plot, a scientist has predicted the possible location of the earthquake and it’s magnitude. The idea seemed plausible but a little Googling will lead you to several sites revealing factual errors of the series. According to Earthquakecountry.info, the magnitude of an earthquake is related to the length of the fault. In order to have a 10.5 magnitude quake, you have to have a fault that circles the Earth.

If we look at the Earthquake Map uploaded by Inquirer.net, it shows earthquakes recorded this year were not more than 6.9 magnitude. However, the Baguio earthquake on July 16, 1990 was a 7.5 magnitude on the Richter scale and so far it was considered to have cost the biggest destruction in the country. The largest so far recorded was 9.5 in Chile on May 22, 1960. So, this means a magnitude 8.1 is possible, could it possibly happen in the Philippines? I leave that to the scientists.

Director Renato Solidum Jr. of Phivolcs had earlier dismissed the prediction as a hoax saying “There is no basic science behind it.” According to the director, no science yet can determine the exact location and magnitude of an earthquake. So, what do we make out of the 4.5 magnitude earthquake felt in several parts of Luzon last Sunday night? The Philippines is in the earthquake belt after all, so this is quite normal and a magnitude 4.5 is still light.

Juseleeno Nobulega Daroose seemed to have a penchant for predicting disasters. If he has predicted the path taken by typhoon Frank then I might have full belief in his capacity. Anybody can freely claim to have predicted something. There’s predictions based on the ‘bolang kristal” then there’s predictions based on science. I opt to lean on the latter. Even scientists at Phivolcs with all their training and equipment could not predict an earthquake.

Others say we won’t lose anything if we believe and be prepared. Do we really have to hear a prediction of a disaster in order to be prepared? We are on the Pacific Ring of Fire, we are on the typhoon belt, we are on the earthquake belt. We don’t need predictions. Common sense would tell you to be careful and be prepared at ALL times.

photo credit: Hey Paul

Tagged as: Earthquake, Juseleeno Nobulega Daroose, Philippines, Prediction